News Details (Posted: November 4, 2008):

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REGIONAL GOOD STUFF

A MARKET TO WATCH
The city "where Florida begins" has been named a future market to watch by the Urban Land Institute (ULI) and PricewaterhouseCoopers report Emerging Trends in Real Estate 2008. Determining that the real estate market still has a long way to go to complete a "healthy correction," the report anticipates that financial and real estate sectors will bottom in 2009 and flounder during 2010, finding their way to a correction that should be good for the industry in the longrun. The most successful markets will ultimately be 24-hour cities such as New York City, Washington D.C., Los Angeles and San Francisco, the report says. Jacksonville, along with Orlando and Tampa, was listed as one of the smaller markets to watch.

GUCCI BARGAINS
A 3,900 square-foot Gucci Outlet Store, the only one of its kind in the Southeast, is opening at the Prime Outlets- St. Augustine . The store will offer 30 to 50 percent discounts on Gucci accessories and products. It's part of a 90,000-square- foot, $35-million expansion for the outlet center, which will soon welcome a host of top designer and brand-name stores including Saks Fifth Avenue Off 5th, Kate Spade, Hugo Boss Factory Store, St. John Outlet, Cole Haan, Michael Kors, Lucky Brand Jeans, Loft Outlet, Juicy Couture, Papaya and more.

SOME TOUGH STATS
Although sales of existing homes rose 24 percent statewide in September versus the same month last year, Jacksonville's numbers remained flat. Statewide, there were 10,817 sales in September 2008 versus 8,725 in September 2007, according to the Florida Association of Realtors. But locally, it was 876 sales versus 878 a year ago. The silver lining? At least it wasn't a decline. Another hard-to-swallow stat: Forbes magazine is projecting that Jacksonville, Naples and Miami will be foreclosure hotspots in 2009. The magazine says that flat job growth in those markets will contribute to the problem. Nationwide, about 766,000 people have received some sort of foreclosure notice since July-an increase of 71 percent over a year ago.

GOOD FOR BUSINESS
Good news for businesses relocating to Florida or for those who already call the Sunshine State home: Florida came in fifth for the second consecutive year when it comes to business friendliness, according to the Tax Foundation's recent 2009 State Business Tax Climate Index , which ranks tax systems in all 50 states. The report noted that the state benefits from not having a personal income tax. The Index, published annually since 2003, ranks states based on the taxes that matter most to businesses and business investment. This year Wyoming ranked first while New Jersey placed last.

EDITORIAL: IS THE TURNAROUND HERE?
Note: The following story was written by Chicago Tribune op-ed columnist Dennis Byrne, who makes the case that the mainstream is ignoring good news about the housing industry. What do you think?

MEDIA IGNORING TURNAROUND EVIDENCE
By Dennis Byrne Chicago Tribune
Is it possible that the housing market has turned?

Blamed for just about everything bad that has happened recently to the economy, housing sales, I dare say, are showing signs of picking up. At the risk of being considered a lunatic, I say this for reasons of systematically gathered data, personal experience and common sense.

First the data, which hasn't and won't get as much attention they deserve, considering the fact that everyone has been blaming the dismal housing market for as far back as recent memory can take us.

The good news is that the National Association of Realtors said sales of existing-homes--including single-family, townhomes, condominiums and co-ops--for September jumped 5.5 percent higher over the previous month. They are 1.4 percent higher than September 2007. That's the first time that sales have risen compared to a year earlier since November 2005.

Could this be a turnaround? Let's look at another NAR measure: its "pending sales of existing homes" index most forward-looking barometer of residential sales because it records a sale when a contract is signed, rather than at closing, which can be months later. In August, the latest month available, it rose 7.4 percent over July. More significantly, that's 8.8 percent higher over August 2007. These are the kinds of numbers that should be on the front page over every newspaper in the country--but they weren't.

This flies in the face of most "experts," whose boots aren't on the ground and who predict no turnaround until possibly late next year. Credit markets won't loosen up until then, they explain; no one can get a loan, even the creditworthy.

It's not true. The credit logjam already is easing. True, your credit has to be good, but loans are available. And the loans are cheaper. Freddie Mac says the national average commitment rate for a 30-year, conventional, fixed-rate mortgage fell to 6.04 percent in September from 6.48 percent in August; the rate was 6.38 percent in September 2007. Yes, home price declines are what the media will focus on, but that will only fuel a turnaround. Lower prices and lower interest; what more can the prospective homebuyer want?

A residential real estate market turn-up has to come some time, and, guardedly I say the signs gradually are starting to look positive. "What we are seeing," said Lawrence Yun, the Realtors' association chief economist, "is the momentum of people taking advantage of low home prices, with pending home sales up strongly in California, Nevada, Arizona, Florida, Rhode Island and the Washington, D.C. region."

Yeah but, the pessimists will say, the increase is probably the result of the higher number of foreclosures, so it's not really good news at all. They point out that while one index shows that California home sales rose 65 percent in September, the biggest year-over-year increase in at least two decades, it's the result of buyers grabbing up foreclosed homes at discounted prices.

Yes, and so?

This is what has to happen before the housing market can recover substantially. Home prices already have been driven down--bad news for homeowners, but good news for buyers. Just as high quality stocks are a bargain in a depressed market, so is a quality home in a depressed housing market. A large inventory of available homes also is good for prospective buyers. So is continuing affordable interest rates.

Also, the dramatic slide in energy costs will help boost consumer confidence, an essential ingredients of a housing and economic recovery. My instincts, tell me that pent-up demand is waiting for just the right moment, the right positive development, to spring loose.